* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 08/05/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 31 35 38 42 47 50 53 56 60 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 29 32 35 39 43 46 50 55 58 61 64 68 73 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 27 25 26 27 29 30 31 31 32 34 38 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 38 30 24 21 21 12 6 9 15 18 15 10 9 6 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -1 5 8 5 2 6 7 6 5 11 9 7 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 78 83 86 80 73 62 56 136 198 184 176 178 166 163 204 235 291 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 146 143 138 130 121 119 115 111 112 110 110 112 113 116 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 146 143 138 130 119 116 111 105 104 101 100 101 103 105 109 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 5 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 70 70 67 68 67 66 64 61 60 57 57 57 58 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 55 58 61 51 55 76 90 99 112 96 88 54 30 12 -7 -24 200 MB DIV 24 31 19 23 28 79 63 51 37 26 -7 25 8 24 -7 -25 -17 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -12 -19 -24 -30 -26 -17 -12 -18 -12 -9 0 3 2 2 1 LAND (KM) -398 -275 -177 -25 22 315 613 948 1274 1563 1807 1957 2056 2139 2158 2159 2128 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.7 14.7 15.6 16.3 16.5 16.4 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 10.5 12.3 13.8 15.4 17.0 20.2 23.2 26.3 29.3 32.0 34.3 35.7 36.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 12 9 5 5 5 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 22 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. 40. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 10.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/05/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/05/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 29 32 35 39 43 46 50 55 58 61 64 68 73 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 25 28 31 35 39 42 46 51 54 57 60 64 69 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 20 23 26 30 34 37 41 46 49 52 55 59 64 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT