* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/17/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 33 34 29 29 29 29 30 30 29 29 30 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 27 25 27 34 20 22 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 1 1 -5 -2 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 254 261 253 251 273 266 289 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.4 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 143 146 150 151 160 145 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 127 128 133 135 141 127 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 8 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 66 61 61 61 56 52 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 14 14 13 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 42 22 22 29 -30 -21 -118 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 77 46 41 53 29 0 17 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 3 13 14 8 -3 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 273 346 427 458 431 199 -85 -236 -433 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 9 13 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 23 28 28 19 13 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 33. 36. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.5 92.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/17/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 9.0% 6.3% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.5% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/17/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/17/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 31 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT