* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/16/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 27 30 36 38 44 42 43 45 45 45 45 46 47 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 27 30 36 38 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 19 20 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 22 20 24 28 18 28 15 22 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 2 4 0 -2 -2 -1 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 265 275 271 257 244 222 274 272 281 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 29.4 29.6 30.1 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 138 138 139 142 144 159 163 172 140 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 125 124 124 130 134 144 144 151 119 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 7 6 7 5 9 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 79 78 66 54 50 46 46 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 12 13 16 14 16 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 93 70 56 65 33 25 -28 -13 -97 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 97 74 69 79 56 64 33 16 31 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 -2 4 7 5 8 1 -9 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 49 108 168 218 268 393 360 167 -108 -274 -379 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 5 9 13 12 11 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 17 20 17 15 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. 40. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 4. 6. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 16. 18. 24. 22. 23. 25. 25. 26. 25. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.7 94.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/16/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 11.8% 5.8% 6.6% 1.7% 5.6% 2.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.9% 1.9% 2.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/16/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/16/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 24 27 30 36 38 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 25 28 34 36 32 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 20 23 29 31 27 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT