* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/13/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 31 34 38 43 49 54 59 63 67 71 76 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 27 27 27 27 33 38 43 48 52 55 60 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 21 25 26 27 31 34 39 43 46 49 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 13 13 17 12 12 11 10 3 1 10 12 14 13 13 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 1 3 0 -1 2 0 5 3 -1 -1 0 4 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 279 277 259 270 275 258 291 283 326 109 92 86 94 93 92 101 128 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.1 27.3 27.4 27.7 30.0 30.3 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 147 147 136 126 128 132 169 170 164 163 163 164 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 129 131 132 123 114 117 123 162 167 154 150 150 151 160 157 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 9 6 8 6 7 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 68 70 72 73 75 73 73 71 69 67 66 65 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 39 51 52 60 73 81 85 89 74 59 56 67 48 48 35 200 MB DIV 3 24 25 41 26 22 30 58 55 35 46 67 28 26 41 35 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 -4 -6 -3 -1 0 1 1 0 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 161 165 148 114 67 -26 -157 -219 -83 78 197 316 392 423 407 321 229 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.0 18.6 17.9 17.2 16.5 16.0 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.7 94.9 95.2 95.6 96.5 97.7 99.0 100.5 102.1 103.8 105.1 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 7 8 9 8 6 3 3 3 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 18 17 9 4 2 5 23 29 22 22 22 22 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 18. 23. 29. 34. 39. 43. 47. 51. 56. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 94.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/13/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 14.3% 8.7% 5.3% 1.6% 7.3% 7.8% 19.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% Consensus: 1.2% 4.9% 3.0% 1.8% 0.5% 2.4% 2.6% 7.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/13/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/13/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 25 27 27 27 27 27 33 38 43 48 52 55 60 62 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 24 24 24 24 30 35 40 45 49 52 57 59 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 20 20 20 20 26 31 36 41 45 48 53 55 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT