* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 07/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 24 26 30 30 30 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 24 26 30 30 30 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 10 11 8 7 12 14 19 20 22 25 27 29 33 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 3 1 4 3 8 7 8 5 7 SHEAR DIR 265 271 277 272 241 223 192 199 207 212 205 211 212 206 218 224 222 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 26.6 26.3 25.8 23.8 22.3 22.5 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.9 22.0 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 131 128 123 102 86 87 82 79 76 78 78 76 76 78 83 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 59 60 63 55 47 41 37 31 28 25 25 23 21 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 9 12 10 10 8 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -14 -23 -26 -16 -9 -39 -40 -17 -39 -57 -76 -92 -100 -79 -59 -59 200 MB DIV 77 84 93 78 72 59 18 3 -19 -22 -12 -10 6 -12 -12 0 -11 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -7 -5 -1 10 6 7 4 1 -4 -8 -19 -29 -32 -30 LAND (KM) 1715 1767 1813 1827 1830 1845 1858 1823 1842 1877 1885 1831 1805 1810 1824 1796 1727 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.7 19.8 21.8 23.4 24.7 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.7 126.9 128.1 129.1 130.9 132.5 134.0 135.6 136.9 137.9 138.7 139.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 14 12 10 9 6 5 4 3 1 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. 15. 12. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 10. 10. 10. 7. 2. -6. -11. -18. -25. -33. -44. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 124.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 10.4% 7.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##