* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 07/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 29 31 32 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 29 31 32 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 11 10 9 10 18 17 19 19 21 21 18 18 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 -1 -2 1 0 1 1 -1 0 1 4 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 284 246 259 269 269 233 204 209 215 215 214 215 217 240 250 256 253 SST (C) 28.2 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.4 24.7 22.9 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.1 22.2 22.5 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 137 131 129 111 92 86 86 85 81 82 85 88 88 89 96 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 60 59 61 57 50 44 38 33 28 26 26 25 27 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 8 8 11 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 4 4 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -12 -10 -18 -13 -7 -27 -45 -27 -17 -46 -71 -79 -90 -103 -88 -67 200 MB DIV 57 92 106 102 92 57 17 25 -11 -18 -15 -14 2 -7 -3 -16 7 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -8 -10 -10 -5 7 12 8 10 4 0 -4 -13 -20 -30 -34 LAND (KM) 1694 1747 1818 1854 1880 1880 1898 1861 1879 1922 1846 1747 1658 1586 1527 1449 1347 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.7 18.8 20.8 22.6 23.8 24.9 25.5 25.9 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.7 125.1 126.4 127.6 128.8 130.6 132.1 133.6 135.2 136.8 138.0 139.2 140.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 14 13 13 12 10 10 7 6 5 5 3 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 6 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 18. 15. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 10. 7. 3. -3. -8. -14. -19. -28. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 123.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.4% 4.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/18/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##