* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 08/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 51 57 64 73 76 79 83 86 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 51 57 64 73 76 79 83 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 36 38 41 44 48 52 56 60 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 7 7 7 7 10 9 9 9 10 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 1 346 360 29 27 11 11 11 15 17 8 17 9 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 143 142 142 144 143 140 136 136 137 136 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 75 74 73 73 73 74 74 76 79 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 16 16 16 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -45 -35 -29 -17 -10 0 8 10 19 14 16 15 200 MB DIV 56 35 31 30 39 4 7 20 39 31 42 63 73 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 2 -1 -2 -3 -5 -7 -4 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1769 1841 1917 1998 2090 2263 2438 2233 2059 1921 1791 1679 1582 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.2 12.5 11.8 11.5 11.8 12.8 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.7 125.9 127.1 128.3 130.6 132.9 135.2 137.3 138.9 140.1 140.7 140.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 10 7 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 20 25 17 13 15 6 7 10 13 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 10. 10. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 21. 27. 34. 43. 46. 49. 53. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 123.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 08/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 25.2% 22.0% 14.9% 10.2% 17.9% 19.3% 10.9% Logistic: 14.8% 51.8% 28.9% 20.1% 5.4% 26.0% 18.1% 30.7% Bayesian: 1.5% 30.1% 7.1% 2.0% 1.2% 15.6% 13.2% 0.6% Consensus: 9.6% 35.7% 19.4% 12.3% 5.6% 19.8% 16.9% 14.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 08/26/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX