* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 08/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 48 55 64 72 77 79 82 86 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 48 55 64 72 77 79 82 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 35 38 43 47 50 52 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 8 6 7 8 9 13 14 14 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 4 5 -1 -2 0 -1 1 3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 9 345 348 10 49 29 26 6 32 35 34 27 34 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 148 146 143 142 143 144 142 138 135 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 75 76 75 74 73 75 76 75 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 11 12 14 15 16 16 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -42 -41 -29 -19 -8 -1 5 13 22 20 20 23 200 MB DIV 67 57 44 37 42 42 8 22 20 21 55 69 69 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 -1 -4 -4 -6 -5 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1701 1761 1840 1917 1998 2181 2369 2346 2157 2036 1922 1793 1663 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.4 12.7 12.0 11.3 11.3 12.1 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.6 124.8 126.0 127.2 129.6 131.8 134.0 136.2 137.8 139.0 139.9 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 7 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 16 21 25 12 17 10 5 9 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 25. 34. 42. 47. 49. 52. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 122.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 08/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 20.7% 19.5% 13.2% 8.4% 16.3% 18.0% 10.4% Logistic: 3.6% 21.3% 9.9% 5.4% 0.8% 8.6% 8.8% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% Consensus: 3.9% 15.7% 10.1% 6.3% 3.1% 8.7% 9.3% 9.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 08/26/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX