* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 09/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 36 38 39 37 36 37 37 V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 28 29 33 37 39 39 38 37 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 24 27 28 28 29 30 31 31 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 22 26 25 26 24 18 18 15 16 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -4 -6 -9 -5 -6 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 70 79 86 101 100 96 101 119 132 154 158 191 182 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.5 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 166 166 164 162 161 160 159 149 138 133 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 75 73 72 76 75 75 75 74 70 68 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 70 55 49 64 73 66 55 49 40 43 45 71 200 MB DIV 63 61 69 66 60 37 51 55 74 54 42 35 45 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 2 1 0 0 0 -2 1 0 3 6 LAND (KM) 7 -10 -10 16 38 71 115 162 170 211 296 416 465 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.8 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.4 98.0 98.6 99.1 100.1 101.1 102.3 104.0 105.8 107.6 109.3 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 8 8 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 51 53 24 30 27 27 26 26 31 21 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 14. 12. 11. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 96.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 09/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 09/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##