* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 08/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 47 51 53 54 55 58 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 47 51 53 54 55 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 31 34 35 35 35 35 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 10 12 14 12 12 12 2 4 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 10 347 340 333 329 328 315 311 316 230 208 111 78 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 164 164 160 157 153 144 143 143 142 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 77 77 73 66 57 55 56 60 65 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -24 -18 -35 -30 -14 0 -5 -14 -30 -30 -29 -10 200 MB DIV 45 38 36 17 8 10 3 4 26 18 26 18 10 700-850 TADV 5 6 3 1 2 2 3 1 -2 3 2 5 2 LAND (KM) 484 488 470 477 502 608 619 686 857 1064 1328 1575 1747 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.0 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.8 17.8 18.3 18.2 17.7 16.7 15.6 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 102.2 103.9 105.6 107.3 110.1 112.4 114.4 116.6 119.2 121.7 123.8 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 18 17 13 11 10 12 13 12 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 40 41 34 16 18 17 11 10 16 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. 33. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 100.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 08/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.46 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 24.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.5% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 15.3% 5.5% 1.1% 0.2% 1.6% 9.7% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 08/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##