* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 31 38 46 50 53 50 49 44 41 38 32 27 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 31 38 46 50 53 50 49 44 41 38 32 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 8 2 5 9 7 13 17 26 26 26 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -6 -3 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 4 4 2 3 4 3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 45 40 36 27 30 58 33 356 325 297 295 240 246 265 270 257 266 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.0 25.9 25.3 24.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 149 149 149 149 148 146 146 142 140 132 120 114 104 104 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 51 51 51 52 51 51 53 50 45 41 36 34 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 8 6 5 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 5 13 26 26 27 18 15 5 -21 -12 -27 -13 -19 -30 -39 -6 -31 200 MB DIV 16 22 13 30 13 21 13 33 0 1 -19 -21 -52 -58 -20 -24 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -3 0 -1 3 3 6 7 2 -5 LAND (KM) 776 797 807 821 842 869 887 897 843 821 831 837 825 785 745 640 471 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.3 109.6 109.8 110.1 110.7 111.4 112.2 113.1 114.1 115.4 116.4 117.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 2 3 3 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 30 30 27 18 14 13 13 13 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 34. 36. 38. 39. 39. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 11. 18. 26. 30. 33. 30. 29. 24. 21. 18. 12. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.4 108.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 12.8% 9.7% 2.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 11.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.5% 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##