* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 07/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 27 30 33 35 35 31 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 27 30 33 35 35 31 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 21 20 20 15 10 16 18 22 25 27 31 32 30 31 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 0 0 0 4 -3 -1 3 1 4 2 2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 45 36 29 19 19 1 331 285 282 278 286 274 265 269 278 289 299 SST (C) 30.4 30.1 28.7 27.5 27.4 27.7 26.8 25.4 23.9 23.7 23.8 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.7 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 172 168 154 141 140 144 134 120 104 102 103 101 102 105 106 110 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 77 75 72 69 69 68 65 64 61 56 56 52 52 48 46 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 3 10 -9 -16 -10 -25 -33 -60 -55 -55 -43 -27 -21 -26 -34 -14 200 MB DIV 28 37 39 16 6 2 -5 19 10 -2 0 -16 -20 -9 -32 -33 -32 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 2 0 11 6 13 21 9 13 8 11 13 11 4 LAND (KM) 290 298 359 437 543 657 837 1036 1319 1566 1856 2132 1863 1558 1276 1015 773 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.7 18.9 18.9 19.2 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.6 106.2 107.9 109.5 112.8 116.2 119.7 123.3 126.9 130.4 133.7 137.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 16 16 15 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 14 6 5 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 25. 23. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 6. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 103.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 07/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 07/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##