* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 10/14/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 40 43 47 52 57 59 60 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 40 43 47 35 30 32 33 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 33 33 28 27 31 32 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 16 12 14 12 12 6 1 13 16 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 4 9 6 3 4 7 5 6 1 SHEAR DIR 68 66 78 58 55 83 52 80 113 258 307 322 324 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.7 28.7 28.9 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 152 154 161 163 153 154 162 163 163 160 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 4 3 3 6 5 8 4 7 4 8 6 700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 86 86 84 82 84 85 78 69 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 9 7 5 5 4 4 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 99 91 90 82 76 81 57 60 48 30 1 -6 -24 200 MB DIV 99 115 148 156 118 103 100 127 91 60 10 20 17 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -5 -5 0 -1 -4 -4 1 4 10 18 LAND (KM) 205 225 212 209 189 101 55 -138 -52 49 214 372 401 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.2 13.6 15.5 17.6 19.9 22.0 23.6 24.7 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.2 89.8 90.4 91.1 92.6 94.3 95.9 97.1 97.0 95.7 93.7 91.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 8 9 12 13 14 11 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 10 11 14 22 17 28 46 57 61 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 22. 27. 32. 34. 35. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 88.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 10/14/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.18 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.85 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.2% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 22.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 44.9% 20.7% 15.1% 4.9% 39.5% 46.3% 37.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 7.0% 5.1% 1.3% 0.1% 5.3% 4.6% 7.9% Consensus: 2.0% 25.7% 15.4% 5.4% 1.7% 21.6% 24.4% 15.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 10/14/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##