* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 28 26 26 26 28 29 30 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 28 26 26 26 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 33 32 30 28 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 6 9 11 11 17 16 18 18 16 21 24 23 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -6 -7 -3 -2 -4 -5 -7 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 190 265 280 277 283 314 308 307 296 278 275 276 253 249 244 269 267 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 134 135 139 144 144 149 147 148 145 144 143 140 136 134 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 39 39 40 42 42 44 40 39 36 35 34 35 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -6 -10 -8 1 -14 -24 -32 -23 -17 -3 -4 -7 -17 -17 -9 200 MB DIV -11 -17 -10 -13 -3 -14 -10 -33 -4 -1 -1 -6 0 -2 17 8 -4 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 0 -1 2 1 3 2 2 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 1821 1817 1845 1897 1966 2175 2316 2050 1796 1582 1405 1261 1122 988 858 744 645 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.1 14.6 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.2 127.7 128.3 129.0 131.0 133.6 136.3 138.8 140.9 142.7 144.2 145.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 6 8 12 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 8 11 12 9 10 10 13 13 12 11 8 7 8 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 126.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.11 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.19 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 16.4% 15.2% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.7% 5.5% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##