* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 41 43 45 43 42 41 42 42 41 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 41 43 45 43 42 41 42 42 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 26 24 22 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 5 2 0 2 2 8 6 3 3 8 9 11 15 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -6 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 73 61 55 109 274 352 306 334 1 327 228 236 218 224 225 236 257 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 140 139 138 140 145 147 148 150 147 145 145 142 138 137 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 47 43 40 41 40 40 42 42 43 43 42 38 36 33 32 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 18 12 10 10 9 13 16 0 -15 -21 -35 -14 -17 -3 -8 -2 200 MB DIV 26 18 -8 -14 -14 5 17 -18 4 -13 7 -15 -18 -36 3 2 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -5 -4 -1 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1855 1837 1825 1837 1869 1942 2078 2277 2421 2188 1974 1817 1680 1550 1439 1329 1237 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.1 14.5 13.7 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.2 126.4 126.7 127.1 127.9 129.1 130.9 133.1 135.4 137.4 138.8 140.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 5 8 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 9 9 12 17 10 9 10 9 9 11 12 14 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 18. 20. 18. 17. 16. 17. 17. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 125.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 7.9% 6.7% 1.9% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 8.8% 8.3% 0.6% 0.8% 5.6% 6.1% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##