* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 25 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 25 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 5 10 13 22 26 20 17 13 13 10 3 6 7 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -2 0 1 1 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -5 -7 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 313 255 239 239 221 213 200 205 203 213 213 187 120 145 175 208 SST (C) 27.5 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.9 25.5 24.7 24.8 25.2 25.6 24.8 25.5 25.2 24.9 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 131 125 125 128 131 117 108 109 114 118 111 119 116 113 122 124 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 64 66 67 69 65 60 55 53 50 51 47 46 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 37 34 34 28 47 54 70 72 66 69 57 55 13 6 -5 0 200 MB DIV -7 22 25 19 30 75 87 71 65 32 38 15 8 1 -26 -38 -47 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 -2 3 1 3 5 3 6 3 6 3 2 6 LAND (KM) 1092 1144 1183 1220 1256 1321 1422 1518 1620 1704 1811 1970 2168 2124 1884 1599 1291 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.1 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.0 118.7 119.3 120.0 121.4 122.9 124.3 125.6 127.0 128.4 130.3 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 7 3 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 23. 22. 21. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 117.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##