* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 23 25 26 29 32 32 30 27 24 24 24 25 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 23 25 26 29 32 32 30 27 24 24 24 25 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 1 4 8 12 10 10 4 5 15 17 9 6 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 2 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 4 2 1 1 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 31 30 360 291 213 187 191 193 202 214 242 204 231 230 208 233 351 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.8 26.1 26.1 25.2 24.4 24.5 24.2 23.5 23.8 23.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 141 142 140 139 130 123 124 115 107 108 105 97 101 97 107 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 63 64 70 68 69 64 64 60 57 49 43 38 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 14 13 16 35 29 29 35 56 60 55 57 36 5 0 -11 200 MB DIV 35 28 5 -12 -6 9 43 52 62 54 42 35 1 -8 1 -37 -31 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -5 1 -4 0 9 8 10 12 7 7 LAND (KM) 983 988 985 1014 1029 1063 1113 1162 1222 1340 1484 1580 1712 1851 2054 2045 1797 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.4 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.7 115.0 115.5 115.9 116.8 117.8 119.1 120.6 122.5 124.6 126.6 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 39 22 15 11 10 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28. 27. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 12. 10. 7. 4. 4. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 114.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 12.6% 8.4% 4.1% 1.0% 5.4% 0.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.3% 2.8% 1.4% 0.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##