* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 08/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 19 21 26 33 41 46 52 53 56 57 V (KT) LAND 15 16 18 19 21 26 33 41 46 52 53 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 19 20 22 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 18 17 14 14 15 12 10 10 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -4 -1 -5 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 81 94 105 115 110 102 80 75 90 86 104 91 96 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 144 144 144 146 151 155 156 154 150 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 67 67 67 69 69 67 66 61 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -1 6 14 16 25 21 19 9 12 12 19 27 200 MB DIV 46 39 38 45 47 69 74 58 45 53 62 53 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 5 LAND (KM) 1902 1951 1991 2039 2093 2213 2356 2492 2439 2250 2088 1943 1863 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.7 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.1 10.3 LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.8 127.2 127.6 128.0 129.0 130.2 131.7 133.5 135.4 137.1 138.9 140.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 5 5 5 7 8 9 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 20 19 19 22 34 28 22 18 23 29 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 28. 33. 37. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 18. 26. 31. 37. 38. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 13.7 126.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 08/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 08/17/19 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING