* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 07/12/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 22 23 27 32 34 34 33 32 30 29 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 22 23 27 32 34 34 33 32 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 20 20 19 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 14 14 19 19 17 15 13 11 12 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -1 3 0 -5 -4 -1 3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 48 59 56 55 57 74 86 107 145 176 214 247 264 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.2 27.9 27.4 26.9 25.9 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 160 158 145 140 135 125 118 116 116 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 2 4 700-500 MB RH 77 78 73 71 72 68 61 58 53 48 48 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 38 55 56 66 57 49 43 37 23 36 23 40 200 MB DIV 36 48 61 67 64 33 -10 -6 8 22 6 17 8 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -5 -13 -3 -12 -3 2 2 6 0 -2 LAND (KM) 498 517 549 589 652 761 826 991 1214 1483 1779 2105 1941 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 16.4 17.3 18.0 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.0 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.8 106.8 108.0 109.4 112.3 115.2 118.5 121.9 125.3 129.0 132.6 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 35 29 27 21 17 12 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 3. 7. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 104.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 07/12/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 7.4% 2.4% 1.1% 0.6% 1.8% 0.7% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 07/12/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##