* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 11/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 49 52 49 46 41 35 31 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 49 52 49 46 41 35 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 35 32 28 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 7 8 11 10 23 21 26 28 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 0 1 1 6 0 -3 0 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 273 289 262 266 305 285 289 274 255 216 227 216 228 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 150 149 150 150 150 150 149 151 147 140 132 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.4 -54.6 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -54.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 80 77 78 70 68 60 59 64 65 56 52 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 10 11 14 15 16 14 14 13 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 0 12 22 28 25 24 14 16 22 20 18 24 8 200 MB DIV 94 118 177 185 166 130 94 75 56 33 -13 24 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 5 4 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 989 963 924 885 855 766 690 581 418 270 182 153 234 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.8 16.9 17.8 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.4 109.5 108.6 107.5 106.4 105.6 105.6 106.0 107.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 4 5 6 6 8 6 4 3 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 42 38 36 28 22 20 19 27 23 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 7. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 24. 27. 24. 21. 16. 10. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 111.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 11/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 10.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 9.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.39 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.96 9.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -5.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 46.5% 38.2% 0.0% 0.0% 43.6% 48.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 25.9% 20.9% 12.4% 3.0% 32.2% 48.7% 18.0% Bayesian: 5.5% 28.4% 28.5% 7.3% 1.1% 2.1% 1.1% 8.1% Consensus: 3.4% 33.6% 29.2% 6.6% 1.4% 25.9% 32.6% 8.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 11/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX