* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 08/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 44 49 52 51 48 42 38 34 31 27 25 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 44 49 52 51 48 42 38 34 31 27 25 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 30 27 24 21 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 10 7 9 12 16 15 9 8 7 8 8 15 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -1 0 -2 2 2 -1 -3 0 -1 3 4 4 7 7 SHEAR DIR 296 296 304 287 258 235 230 203 211 209 217 210 234 221 235 235 225 SST (C) 30.0 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.5 26.5 25.6 24.6 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.2 23.1 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 159 156 154 150 130 120 110 103 103 100 93 92 96 96 96 99 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 5 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 73 69 66 64 61 57 53 48 48 45 45 40 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 16 15 16 17 16 15 12 11 9 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 34 33 34 50 35 19 35 41 45 44 52 27 40 23 25 19 200 MB DIV 19 16 44 42 68 71 60 39 12 -5 -3 -5 -3 -16 -8 -36 -31 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -6 -3 -2 -5 5 -4 6 4 6 1 8 -2 6 -1 6 LAND (KM) 407 460 521 511 481 528 602 791 934 1079 1209 1338 1468 1591 1724 1812 1913 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 19.0 20.2 21.3 21.8 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.9 109.9 111.0 112.0 114.2 116.8 119.4 121.7 123.5 125.0 126.5 127.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 9 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 16 14 13 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. 23. 21. 19. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 3. 1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 26. 23. 17. 13. 9. 6. 2. -0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 107.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.37 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.7% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 14.1% 5.3% 2.6% 1.3% 8.7% 4.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 11.7% 8.0% 0.9% 0.4% 8.8% 7.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##