* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 09/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 21 25 28 32 33 35 38 37 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 21 25 28 32 33 35 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 20 19 20 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 21 20 19 22 23 20 17 15 12 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -2 0 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 101 101 105 109 103 101 96 94 76 75 89 120 139 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 164 165 163 158 157 153 149 144 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 9 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 63 62 61 63 64 64 64 63 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 30 39 55 49 54 64 54 60 67 77 70 56 31 200 MB DIV -3 10 17 6 2 14 15 29 14 -10 -22 -1 -28 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 6 3 2 1 0 -1 0 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 169 171 204 241 289 392 454 573 725 859 997 1101 1214 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.4 18.9 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.5 17.6 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.8 108.3 109.3 110.9 112.7 114.6 116.2 117.9 119.6 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 53 51 44 36 28 18 10 13 12 12 6 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -1. 7. 17. 27. 34. 38. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -10. -15. -17. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 8. 12. 13. 15. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.5 107.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 09/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.01 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 1.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 09/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX