* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 09/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 36 42 43 40 37 36 33 31 29 26 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 36 42 43 40 37 36 33 31 29 26 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 22 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 19 21 14 13 19 14 12 9 10 13 19 18 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 4 0 0 3 -3 1 0 -1 1 4 2 1 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 50 47 44 37 34 46 36 65 82 113 128 165 171 191 206 204 218 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.1 25.1 24.3 23.9 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 146 144 143 138 132 129 128 126 125 122 112 104 100 94 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 75 70 70 67 63 59 57 58 57 56 53 50 45 37 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 20 20 21 23 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 57 52 57 46 54 52 34 36 26 32 26 28 28 17 5 200 MB DIV 104 100 91 60 43 23 15 16 -7 -28 -17 -4 0 13 34 0 -5 700-850 TADV -12 -12 -11 -12 -10 0 -4 -13 -1 -2 3 1 3 1 1 3 8 LAND (KM) 816 802 796 799 821 870 945 1058 1153 1220 1290 1320 1346 1373 1423 1471 1524 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.1 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.1 114.0 114.8 115.7 117.3 118.9 120.6 122.0 123.1 124.2 124.9 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 5 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 14 11 8 10 8 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 406 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 18. 15. 12. 11. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 112.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 09/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.06 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.58 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.98 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 09/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##