* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 09/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 40 48 57 60 61 62 66 65 65 66 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 40 48 57 60 61 62 66 65 65 66 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 21 19 18 21 19 12 9 5 4 2 4 3 6 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 3 1 4 3 5 0 2 -2 0 0 -4 -6 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 42 42 49 54 48 48 50 68 52 31 15 116 41 58 28 48 45 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.3 27.3 26.4 26.5 26.2 26.5 27.5 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 153 149 148 147 147 149 149 138 129 130 126 129 138 144 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 81 82 80 77 78 78 75 70 63 59 58 60 62 63 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 15 15 15 18 18 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -5 -6 2 20 37 42 45 35 46 65 80 84 90 87 79 65 200 MB DIV 69 86 91 93 96 91 72 47 28 6 22 28 17 -6 5 6 6 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -2 0 0 -6 -9 -7 -5 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -5 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 604 623 624 633 636 627 651 611 652 767 984 1220 1442 1674 1882 2020 2053 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.9 16.4 17.8 18.9 19.6 19.8 19.7 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.0 105.0 106.0 106.9 108.6 110.3 112.2 114.6 117.2 120.2 123.1 125.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 14 13 11 10 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 22 19 22 10 9 14 10 4 1 1 0 2 9 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 33. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 10. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 28. 37. 40. 42. 42. 46. 45. 45. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 103.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 09/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1% 3.6% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 09/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##