* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 08/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 37 41 40 40 38 40 41 42 45 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 37 41 40 40 38 40 41 42 45 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 15 19 21 19 21 25 29 24 20 18 20 18 17 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 -3 0 3 -2 -5 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 358 33 37 49 62 60 63 53 60 71 64 60 58 56 52 68 86 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 140 137 142 141 141 138 137 137 138 141 143 143 145 145 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 61 60 59 57 56 49 48 46 49 48 50 47 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 -3 -10 -17 -5 0 16 8 16 8 13 21 25 24 0 -37 200 MB DIV 97 65 48 28 17 19 16 12 -9 -15 0 -9 19 23 27 0 -22 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -9 -5 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2078 2139 2197 2246 2307 2405 2290 2200 2113 2028 1959 1903 1849 1805 1739 1667 1605 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.0 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.8 129.7 130.6 131.5 133.0 134.2 135.2 136.1 136.9 137.6 138.3 139.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 7 7 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 16 27 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. 15. 15. 13. 15. 16. 17. 20. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 127.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 08/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.43 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.9% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 08/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##