* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 30 33 34 33 30 28 26 25 25 24 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 30 33 34 33 30 28 26 25 25 24 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 18 20 14 6 7 9 10 14 21 22 21 15 12 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 4 6 6 4 4 3 2 0 -2 1 6 8 7 7 4 SHEAR DIR 42 57 63 66 86 123 185 166 137 115 111 112 107 98 78 99 132 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.5 27.7 26.8 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.1 24.0 24.9 25.7 26.3 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 151 142 132 117 115 117 112 101 111 120 127 134 136 137 138 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 71 70 64 59 58 55 50 45 42 38 34 34 35 36 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 41 37 25 11 -16 -23 12 19 14 23 22 31 41 37 37 25 200 MB DIV 120 108 62 31 5 -6 -25 -15 -5 -19 -11 -16 -26 -27 -20 -28 -3 700-850 TADV -13 -13 -19 -19 -5 1 6 8 4 5 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1458 1519 1543 1547 1561 1596 1658 1711 1774 1894 2052 2233 2235 2111 2019 1919 1832 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 16.1 16.8 17.4 17.7 17.6 17.0 16.2 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.8 121.0 122.0 123.0 124.5 125.9 127.3 128.4 129.8 131.2 132.7 134.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 8 8 7 6 7 8 9 11 10 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 46 33 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 10 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 118.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.1% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4.9% 4.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##