* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 09/16/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 33 38 43 45 52 50 52 56 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 33 38 43 45 52 50 52 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 31 31 32 32 32 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 16 20 22 24 23 24 29 28 28 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 4 4 4 3 9 5 7 7 12 10 SHEAR DIR 62 38 37 43 44 42 34 44 41 35 40 20 344 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 158 163 166 166 164 163 161 162 163 166 169 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 2 2 4 4 7 6 9 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 86 85 86 85 86 84 81 77 76 73 73 73 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 6 7 7 6 4 7 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -7 4 11 14 18 3 3 5 -7 11 17 44 200 MB DIV 79 72 105 129 122 104 54 99 88 77 70 88 75 700-850 TADV 2 -3 -8 -10 -8 -8 -11 -8 -2 -4 -8 -11 -15 LAND (KM) 523 520 516 514 513 483 425 372 331 318 298 232 182 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.7 13.8 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.4 16.2 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 97.1 98.1 99.1 100.0 101.4 102.6 103.4 103.5 103.4 103.5 103.9 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 4 1 1 2 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 26 40 48 56 40 35 34 33 33 33 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. 0. -4. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 13. 18. 20. 27. 25. 27. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 96.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 09/16/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.14 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.71 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 7.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 11.5% 18.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 10.6% 7.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 3.8% 6.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 09/16/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##