* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 05/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 41 48 54 58 63 63 65 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 22 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 20 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 12 12 9 5 2 8 4 4 2 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -5 -3 -5 -2 -7 -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 99 88 65 69 50 10 291 249 203 342 317 249 240 SST (C) 30.6 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 166 160 154 150 149 148 147 145 140 133 132 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 70 74 76 79 79 82 81 78 77 74 74 74 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 10 8 9 8 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 57 74 86 92 79 71 63 60 73 65 83 93 79 200 MB DIV 90 99 98 97 109 84 73 49 80 87 49 48 35 700-850 TADV 2 1 -2 -1 -5 0 1 0 2 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 81 33 -10 -40 -70 -92 -115 -119 -117 -105 -138 -233 -223 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.4 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 93.8 93.5 93.3 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9 93.6 94.8 96.5 98.2 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 3 5 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 26 21 19 19 16 9 12 2 2 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 28. 34. 38. 43. 43. 45. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.2 94.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 05/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 30.0% 21.9% 9.5% 13.0% 45.2% 80.1% 66.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 3.6% 10.4% Consensus: 1.1% 10.3% 7.5% 3.2% 4.3% 15.3% 27.9% 25.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 05/30/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##