* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 11/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 18 10 14 20 33 39 46 45 42 39 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 5 4 0 -2 4 7 5 5 8 5 3 SHEAR DIR 319 317 320 290 243 227 209 201 210 232 225 239 244 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.4 26.7 25.8 25.3 24.7 23.1 22.9 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 131 135 137 130 121 115 109 92 91 86 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 -56.0 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 46 45 40 37 33 30 28 26 26 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 12 9 6 7 -13 -24 -32 -26 0 -13 -11 1 200 MB DIV 51 24 22 30 40 48 35 27 25 11 44 20 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -3 1 2 0 3 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1565 1587 1608 1605 1588 1491 1369 1267 1168 1067 904 711 505 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.6 13.9 15.5 17.2 18.8 20.3 21.6 22.6 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 119.8 120.1 120.3 120.4 120.6 120.9 121.4 121.6 121.6 120.8 119.2 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 5 8 8 9 8 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 6 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -16. -27. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -18. -24. -32. -37. -41. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 119.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 11/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 11/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX