* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 11/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 24 23 22 23 28 26 24 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 24 23 22 23 28 26 24 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 11 15 14 13 9 18 30 34 37 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 -2 -2 0 3 1 4 9 12 6 SHEAR DIR 251 258 290 313 321 311 293 241 206 195 211 209 231 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.7 27.8 26.9 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 136 137 138 137 139 151 141 131 133 132 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 56 54 51 50 49 48 50 45 39 37 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 11 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 1 -8 0 15 0 -3 -22 -29 -41 -33 -25 200 MB DIV 40 27 33 24 24 52 66 59 50 43 30 -4 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -5 -3 3 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1483 1474 1492 1510 1515 1544 1517 1448 1321 1200 1105 989 888 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.2 12.0 11.8 11.3 11.4 12.2 13.6 15.1 16.3 17.4 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 118.5 118.5 118.5 118.3 118.0 117.7 117.8 117.8 117.9 117.9 117.6 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 2 2 3 1 2 6 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 15 17 17 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -2. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 1. -1. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 118.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 11/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.67 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.70 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 12.1% 5.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 9.5% 7.2% 0.9% 0.2% 4.5% 4.8% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 11/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX