* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 11/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 38 43 47 51 57 62 63 59 54 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 38 43 47 51 57 62 63 59 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 37 39 39 40 40 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 5 3 5 5 10 5 7 22 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 0 4 0 -1 4 8 SHEAR DIR 77 66 100 108 96 4 14 360 36 150 189 208 217 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 134 135 138 141 141 139 137 140 142 148 133 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.6 -54.2 -55.0 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 66 65 63 61 56 54 53 55 55 47 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 10 12 5 -4 10 12 -13 -41 -56 -44 -32 200 MB DIV 124 111 90 63 43 14 30 53 46 31 25 7 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 -5 -2 2 2 LAND (KM) 1628 1635 1650 1668 1686 1712 1736 1740 1651 1522 1328 1156 1008 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.4 9.7 9.2 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 119.6 119.7 119.7 119.7 119.4 118.7 117.9 116.9 116.3 115.8 115.5 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 4 5 5 5 7 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 10 11 14 21 24 18 13 12 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 8. 6. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 22. 26. 32. 37. 38. 34. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 119.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 11/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.67 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.4% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 18.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 20.5% 9.7% 6.3% 1.8% 13.9% 16.7% 19.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 14.5% 10.4% 2.2% 0.6% 10.5% 11.9% 6.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 11/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX