* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 11/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 34 41 49 57 62 68 71 62 51 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 34 41 49 57 62 68 71 62 51 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 33 32 31 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 10 9 6 6 7 9 2 8 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 0 1 0 8 3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 102 93 63 64 72 58 10 339 328 32 172 193 206 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 134 135 137 141 141 140 138 136 139 141 143 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 66 64 60 58 57 55 55 54 47 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 11 13 15 15 16 16 11 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 25 21 12 16 12 12 -4 -24 -43 -46 -41 200 MB DIV 97 106 133 118 92 44 11 -4 9 6 -6 10 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1611 1628 1643 1661 1679 1712 1749 1767 1770 1726 1641 1484 1368 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.8 9.0 9.8 11.4 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.5 119.6 119.6 119.6 119.4 119.1 118.4 117.7 117.2 117.1 117.1 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 3 2 6 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 9 11 14 21 25 21 19 18 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 25. 30. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 29. 37. 42. 48. 51. 42. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 119.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 11/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.75 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 18.2% 9.3% 5.1% 1.9% 10.8% 24.7% 22.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 6.4% 3.3% 1.8% 0.6% 3.6% 8.3% 7.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 11/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX