* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 10/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 31 31 31 33 35 34 33 34 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 31 31 31 33 35 34 33 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 22 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 12 10 11 10 8 16 16 13 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 2 1 0 1 4 2 1 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 245 243 253 257 278 281 217 207 221 224 246 234 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 27.7 27.7 28.8 28.5 27.4 27.7 26.7 27.0 26.7 26.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 142 143 154 151 139 141 129 130 127 124 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -55.4 -54.5 -55.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 61 63 69 72 79 84 83 83 78 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -40 -45 -46 -40 -25 -7 15 34 28 21 18 6 200 MB DIV 21 22 23 24 33 26 22 85 149 127 107 80 41 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 1 2 0 -2 0 3 3 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 831 865 917 993 1070 1227 1344 1399 1440 1439 1391 1377 1408 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 13 13 11 7 3 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 6 10 27 33 12 9 6 5 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 24. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -21. -22. -23. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 104.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 10/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 19.0% 16.0% 10.3% 6.9% 14.9% 16.3% 10.8% Logistic: 1.0% 9.9% 3.4% 2.0% 0.4% 2.8% 6.6% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 9.8% 6.5% 4.1% 2.4% 5.9% 7.7% 9.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 10/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX