* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 41 46 51 57 60 61 57 52 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 41 46 51 57 60 61 57 52 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 40 41 42 44 44 42 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 11 10 8 12 5 5 10 9 4 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 2 4 4 3 0 -4 -2 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 52 48 77 93 79 92 71 38 57 64 115 212 240 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.8 26.9 24.9 22.9 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 154 147 142 139 139 132 113 93 86 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 64 61 57 56 54 53 51 51 49 43 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 21 22 22 23 24 26 26 26 24 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 57 59 80 91 81 93 89 89 82 81 56 40 30 200 MB DIV 43 59 80 64 43 41 11 -4 -32 -2 -21 20 15 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -4 -4 -1 -2 4 6 LAND (KM) 962 971 982 989 987 1014 1115 1246 1278 1173 1091 1151 1217 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.8 19.1 18.8 18.7 20.1 22.2 24.4 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.2 116.9 117.6 118.3 119.7 121.2 122.5 122.8 122.9 123.9 125.9 128.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 7 8 4 4 9 14 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 9 8 12 22 22 9 7 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13. 10. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 16. 21. 27. 30. 31. 27. 22. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 115.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.46 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 21.6% 14.4% 12.8% 0.0% 15.8% 18.6% 10.8% Logistic: 2.0% 14.4% 6.8% 3.6% 0.8% 4.7% 1.0% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 12.2% 7.1% 5.5% 0.3% 6.8% 6.5% 4.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX