* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 46 52 57 65 70 71 69 61 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 46 52 57 65 70 71 69 61 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 44 48 51 53 55 53 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 11 9 12 8 3 6 7 2 8 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 2 2 4 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 41 45 60 72 84 84 100 43 32 33 94 189 228 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.6 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.1 25.1 23.1 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 150 143 140 140 135 115 95 87 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 68 63 60 57 55 53 54 50 52 45 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 21 23 24 25 28 28 28 27 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 56 55 62 79 90 95 99 91 86 86 74 60 58 200 MB DIV 49 49 61 81 62 42 33 15 -30 -16 -6 10 12 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -4 -5 1 0 7 LAND (KM) 924 931 932 944 949 976 1073 1194 1220 1141 1049 1108 1220 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.7 19.1 18.8 18.8 20.0 22.1 24.1 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.2 116.0 116.7 117.4 119.1 120.7 121.9 122.2 122.3 123.3 125.3 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 9 8 3 2 9 13 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 12 9 11 18 30 11 9 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 22. 26. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 15. 19. 20. 18. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 35. 40. 41. 39. 31. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 114.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.73 -2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 21.6% 14.4% 12.8% 0.0% 16.2% 18.6% 11.4% Logistic: 1.0% 7.8% 3.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.1% 1.8% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 10.1% 6.0% 4.9% 0.1% 6.8% 6.8% 4.6% DTOPS: 5.0% 25.0% 13.0% 5.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% 36.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX