* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 47 58 65 73 74 76 73 69 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 47 58 65 73 74 76 73 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 47 54 60 64 64 61 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 14 11 8 4 9 9 12 11 9 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 2 0 0 0 2 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 25 28 31 46 59 59 102 90 93 77 87 93 131 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 27.7 26.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 160 159 157 155 152 150 150 141 130 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 75 74 67 63 61 61 58 51 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 12 16 17 19 18 19 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 21 27 39 42 45 50 71 73 75 67 69 57 51 200 MB DIV 38 49 55 70 82 53 66 29 64 54 12 -15 -31 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 689 730 792 830 841 926 1053 1140 1134 1044 1023 1090 1189 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.0 16.6 16.9 16.9 17.2 18.3 19.6 20.6 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.9 111.0 112.1 113.3 115.8 117.9 119.3 119.6 119.6 120.5 122.3 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 12 12 11 9 4 3 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 21 24 35 14 6 8 7 17 14 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 33. 40. 48. 49. 51. 48. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 109.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.6% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 21.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 16.1% 7.4% 4.2% 2.2% 29.5% 53.7% 20.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% 2.8% 1.2% Consensus: 0.5% 14.7% 9.6% 1.4% 0.8% 17.4% 26.1% 7.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX