* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 06/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 50 60 69 76 83 85 81 75 67 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 50 60 69 76 83 85 81 75 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 41 47 52 58 63 67 66 60 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 22 18 16 7 7 10 13 8 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 7 4 5 3 6 1 -1 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 40 48 21 28 23 7 353 100 90 58 39 52 52 SST (C) 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.3 29.2 27.8 27.6 27.9 26.3 24.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 169 169 170 168 159 143 137 142 127 107 107 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.0 -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -50.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 89 87 87 87 86 84 85 77 73 74 73 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 19 20 21 22 24 24 27 30 29 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -24 -23 -35 -37 3 5 17 29 30 44 55 30 200 MB DIV 109 107 174 190 149 93 113 115 112 143 62 32 18 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -14 -17 -12 -8 -14 -5 -1 0 -1 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 553 583 595 587 559 447 343 454 620 562 423 415 464 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.6 14.0 15.9 16.8 16.2 16.2 18.2 19.3 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.6 102.1 102.6 102.9 103.4 105.4 108.3 109.8 109.1 109.0 111.1 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 5 6 10 15 11 4 7 11 9 2 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 43 50 58 58 15 7 6 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 35.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 21. 26. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 18. 20. 18. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 30. 39. 46. 53. 55. 51. 45. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 100.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 06/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 145.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.95 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -25.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 06/09/18 12 UTC ##