* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 06/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 41 47 61 71 79 90 92 92 86 79 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 41 47 61 71 79 90 92 92 86 79 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 45 55 64 73 79 82 75 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 10 14 15 11 1 7 10 8 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 5 7 4 7 1 0 -1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 316 331 18 34 23 2 343 298 111 71 50 70 58 SST (C) 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.5 29.6 28.7 28.2 27.7 26.2 24.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 171 161 152 145 139 125 110 111 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.1 -51.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 3 700-500 MB RH 84 87 88 86 86 85 83 81 77 76 72 64 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 14 15 17 21 22 22 27 27 29 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 8 1 -4 -4 8 3 19 4 20 23 52 52 53 200 MB DIV 110 95 117 155 150 99 100 126 138 113 97 19 22 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -8 -11 -8 -10 -10 -5 -1 -3 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 461 458 452 463 454 414 370 442 536 557 488 446 530 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.9 14.0 15.2 15.8 16.0 16.4 18.0 19.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.5 99.5 100.5 101.2 102.8 104.7 106.9 108.6 109.2 109.6 111.4 113.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 6 5 10 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 29 38 41 42 62 23 14 9 6 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 48.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 15. 16. 21. 21. 22. 20. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 11. 17. 31. 41. 49. 60. 62. 62. 56. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 97.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 06/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.84 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -35.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 06/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##