* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922017 08/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 34 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 34 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 15 19 20 22 22 20 26 24 18 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 5 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 70 67 62 70 68 74 75 88 77 86 89 101 81 SST (C) 29.9 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 27.7 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 158 154 150 148 142 133 128 127 125 123 123 120 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 3 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 75 73 73 72 67 61 57 55 50 47 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 12 13 12 10 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 61 53 63 73 77 78 79 85 77 82 69 51 200 MB DIV 69 72 61 52 62 22 16 12 -7 -18 -12 0 -3 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -6 0 0 -3 -3 -6 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 305 416 456 475 495 561 702 969 1208 1412 1604 1771 1936 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.9 19.6 20.2 19.9 19.6 19.1 18.7 18.4 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.3 110.3 111.3 112.1 114.1 117.0 120.1 122.8 125.1 127.2 129.0 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 9 8 12 15 14 11 11 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 16 12 15 17 10 1 0 0 3 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -17. -19. -18. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 1. -0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. -4. -11. -15. -16. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.7 108.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922017 INVEST 08/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 56.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 7.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 5.0% 3.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 7.0% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 4.3% 1.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922017 INVEST 08/11/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##