* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 08/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 48 58 65 72 71 66 60 54 47 43 36 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 48 58 65 72 71 66 60 54 47 43 36 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 44 47 47 43 37 31 25 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 9 10 10 10 3 9 10 19 17 16 19 14 21 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 -2 3 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 11 353 7 3 342 327 315 280 248 196 207 211 202 203 254 304 321 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.1 28.5 27.3 25.6 24.9 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.9 24.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 167 166 167 168 157 151 139 120 112 104 100 97 102 109 113 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 84 81 83 82 81 73 70 65 61 58 56 51 49 41 39 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 9 11 13 14 17 16 15 13 12 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -7 2 3 -8 -7 13 19 35 2 -5 -9 -22 -7 12 33 26 32 200 MB DIV 54 49 61 77 64 36 36 49 12 -2 1 3 5 -8 -13 -23 -19 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 -6 -6 -7 -8 -15 -3 8 10 14 9 13 5 10 8 LAND (KM) 385 408 421 433 420 443 555 539 635 719 878 986 1139 1320 1538 1774 2016 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.8 16.1 17.5 18.7 19.8 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.1 101.3 102.5 103.7 104.9 107.4 110.0 112.6 115.3 117.9 120.3 122.5 124.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 12 11 10 9 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 31 30 33 29 16 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 15. 14. 10. 7. 4. 2. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 33. 40. 47. 46. 41. 35. 29. 22. 18. 11. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 100.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 08/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.59 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.2% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 21.3% 20.9% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 40.0% 19.5% 11.1% 4.0% 25.1% 31.3% 17.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 19.3% 7.6% 1.6% 0.5% 5.0% 3.2% 0.7% Consensus: 2.3% 28.2% 16.8% 4.2% 1.5% 17.1% 18.5% 6.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 08/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##