* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 50 59 68 69 68 65 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 50 59 68 69 68 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 32 35 37 37 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 3 5 8 4 1 4 9 15 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 5 12 7 6 7 0 4 3 5 4 SHEAR DIR 48 78 81 69 55 93 123 140 163 232 234 227 220 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 158 158 158 161 161 160 159 159 159 158 156 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 68 70 67 68 69 66 63 58 53 50 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 8 2 1 -7 -12 -25 -27 -25 -18 -14 -4 200 MB DIV 83 44 41 60 81 94 94 63 12 5 37 30 46 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 3 3 LAND (KM) 760 765 794 832 882 945 975 972 939 936 947 990 1015 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.1 9.8 9.6 LONG(DEG W) 99.4 100.0 100.8 101.5 102.4 103.8 104.7 105.3 105.6 105.8 106.1 106.4 106.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 8 8 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 46 49 50 52 58 68 72 74 79 87 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 17. 27. 34. 38. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 8. 5. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 30. 39. 48. 49. 48. 45. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 99.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 45.4% 33.8% 18.7% 3.2% 43.0% 37.7% 66.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 5.3% Consensus: 1.9% 15.4% 11.4% 6.2% 1.1% 14.3% 12.8% 23.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX