* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 05/31/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 33 35 34 35 36 40 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 30 28 27 30 31 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 26 26 30 31 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 10 9 9 11 13 11 10 11 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -1 -1 -6 -2 -6 4 0 4 SHEAR DIR 225 230 203 174 166 183 174 195 198 188 208 197 238 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 156 154 155 154 153 151 152 154 156 149 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 80 79 77 75 73 70 68 68 68 66 67 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 11 11 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 60 57 70 74 58 77 82 86 58 31 32 21 200 MB DIV 162 133 113 139 131 73 61 39 36 51 54 38 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 2 1 4 2 11 LAND (KM) 251 209 158 105 78 18 -89 -185 -66 14 76 67 62 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 98.0 98.1 98.3 98.3 98.4 98.2 97.8 97.0 96.0 95.1 93.8 92.6 91.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 24 23 23 13 35 36 18 4 16 16 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 8. 10. 9. 10. 11. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 98.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 05/31/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.89 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 20.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 05/31/17 06 UTC ##