* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 09/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 33 38 42 44 45 45 45 46 47 49 50 53 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 33 38 42 44 45 45 45 46 47 49 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 34 34 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 22 27 27 19 15 14 12 12 16 16 20 17 20 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 0 -4 -2 -1 -3 -2 -5 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 57 57 57 69 73 84 74 88 123 131 146 162 157 176 159 178 179 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 29.7 29.3 29.1 28.3 28.5 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.6 28.4 28.8 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 163 158 156 148 149 137 133 133 136 135 138 148 152 143 146 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 81 81 80 78 74 70 67 66 62 63 58 56 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 45 29 22 -4 24 35 34 26 28 11 15 17 20 21 31 200 MB DIV 55 60 67 46 25 33 15 18 28 8 50 22 68 54 50 24 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -5 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 147 179 181 183 164 187 232 275 298 289 281 319 407 474 550 699 859 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.6 18.5 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.6 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.3 105.3 107.0 108.0 108.3 108.2 108.0 108.3 109.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 10 8 4 1 1 1 3 6 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 30 24 21 15 23 6 4 4 5 4 4 11 15 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 37. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 21. 22. 24. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 98.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 09/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 09/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##