* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 33 30 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 33 30 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 32 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 38 43 44 39 38 39 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 10 11 2 3 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 230 226 228 234 228 243 249 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 105 107 106 105 108 112 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 37 37 36 28 26 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 19 19 18 17 15 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 -6 -6 -17 -10 -12 -22 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 17 30 12 37 49 0 -26 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 2 1 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2001 2018 1947 1893 1840 1764 1666 1551 1450 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.6 22.8 22.9 23.2 23.3 23.1 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.8 135.6 136.3 136.9 137.4 138.2 139.2 140.3 141.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -19. -30. -40. -47. -51. -53. -54. -56. -61. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -25. -37. -51. -60. -67. -73. -77. -82. -87. -93. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.9 134.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##