* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 33 29 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 34 37 41 43 37 41 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 3 4 10 4 4 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 240 230 226 229 232 239 247 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.9 24.5 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 107 105 107 106 106 109 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 38 39 37 36 32 27 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 19 19 18 16 15 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 2 -5 -5 -21 -6 -14 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 12 11 23 14 20 24 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 2 5 2 0 -3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1974 1999 2024 1960 1897 1801 1712 1597 1486 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.1 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.9 134.7 135.5 136.2 136.8 137.8 138.7 139.8 140.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -18. -30. -40. -47. -51. -53. -54. -56. -61. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -14. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -20. -28. -39. -52. -60. -66. -72. -76. -81. -86. -92. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.5 133.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##