* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 39 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 47 39 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 48 42 37 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 29 31 31 37 38 45 37 42 38 37 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 4 1 1 8 5 3 1 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 254 255 252 248 242 235 240 240 247 260 269 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.4 24.0 24.1 24.4 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 105 101 103 106 102 104 105 104 105 109 113 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 41 40 40 39 36 33 29 27 24 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 26 25 24 20 18 16 14 12 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 22 23 16 13 -5 -21 -32 -11 -24 -9 -10 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 0 -12 -19 -24 28 7 5 10 -22 -36 -52 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 7 5 3 4 4 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1781 1824 1869 1899 1920 1966 1961 1867 1809 1731 1621 1519 1424 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.4 132.0 132.8 133.6 135.0 136.2 137.2 137.8 138.6 139.7 140.7 141.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 4 3 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -14. -20. -28. -35. -42. -44. -44. -45. -47. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -29. -27. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -28. -35. -44. -53. -62. -72. -82. -89. -92. -95. -97.-101.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.6 130.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 535.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##