* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 59 51 43 36 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 59 51 43 36 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 61 54 48 43 34 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 27 29 31 38 40 48 36 39 36 33 23 17 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 2 0 2 4 4 1 0 -2 -6 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 252 248 249 251 249 241 238 239 236 248 258 276 295 325 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.2 25.0 24.4 24.0 24.4 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 114 112 105 101 106 101 102 103 101 100 100 103 105 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 43 43 42 40 38 37 32 29 29 24 20 19 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 31 29 28 25 21 19 17 17 14 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 44 42 28 31 17 -5 -24 -30 -13 -17 -21 -27 -25 -43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 11 4 2 -10 -12 16 10 17 26 -23 -39 -53 -50 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 9 6 5 4 3 2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1668 1721 1776 1819 1864 1898 1950 1962 1929 1899 1877 1847 1766 1712 1668 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.4 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.1 129.9 130.7 131.4 132.0 133.4 135.0 135.9 136.7 137.1 137.4 137.8 138.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -25. -28. -31. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -21. -26. -32. -37. -40. -42. -41. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -21. -22. -26. -29. -30. -29. -28. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -27. -34. -44. -54. -64. -72. -78. -88. -98.-104.-108.-109.-112.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.1 129.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 631.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##