* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 79 71 62 56 42 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 79 71 62 56 42 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 80 72 65 58 47 37 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 25 25 28 31 39 44 48 39 43 41 36 24 37 25 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 0 0 3 -1 -2 0 2 0 0 0 -3 -6 -6 2 SHEAR DIR 245 253 251 241 243 248 253 244 238 242 241 245 256 281 347 19 161 SST (C) 25.5 24.9 24.8 25.1 24.9 23.8 24.1 24.0 23.8 23.9 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.1 22.8 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 111 110 113 111 99 102 101 98 98 99 98 97 95 93 88 84 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -53.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 46 45 42 38 38 36 30 28 30 28 30 33 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 33 31 31 29 26 22 21 20 17 13 9 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 52 46 36 34 15 -8 -20 -25 -22 -12 0 -39 -80 -76 -92 200 MB DIV 27 19 18 15 -1 -3 0 18 22 23 -7 14 -41 -40 -50 -42 -41 700-850 TADV 1 5 11 7 4 9 9 7 0 2 1 3 4 1 0 4 -8 LAND (KM) 1591 1616 1644 1677 1712 1793 1807 1853 1848 1842 1858 1800 1704 1529 1257 1120 1059 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.2 24.1 24.6 24.7 25.4 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.5 129.1 129.7 130.3 131.6 132.8 134.2 135.1 135.5 135.8 135.7 135.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 4 2 2 5 7 9 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -16. -22. -28. -34. -38. -43. -47. -50. -53. -56. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -27. -30. -35. -39. -44. -45. -47. -48. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -14. -15. -19. -24. -26. -28. -27. -27. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -28. -34. -48. -58. -67. -75. -81. -92.-105.-115.-122.-129.-137.-136. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.7 127.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 736.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##