* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 90 79 71 62 48 37 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 90 79 71 62 48 37 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 91 81 73 66 54 43 33 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 24 26 25 24 31 35 41 48 42 40 42 42 28 42 46 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 2 1 3 2 0 -1 4 0 -1 -2 1 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 242 244 252 249 240 245 250 252 242 251 241 247 249 279 335 339 320 SST (C) 25.8 25.4 24.8 24.9 25.0 24.2 23.9 24.2 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.5 22.8 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 109 110 112 104 100 103 99 98 98 99 99 98 98 90 86 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.9 -53.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -53.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 50 51 49 47 44 38 37 37 33 29 30 32 34 43 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 31 33 31 29 27 24 21 19 17 13 11 8 6 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 46 51 48 29 25 0 -13 -20 -22 -18 -1 -19 -47 -37 -38 200 MB DIV 35 21 16 19 15 4 -12 3 5 17 0 6 -32 -44 -23 -6 -40 700-850 TADV 4 1 2 9 7 3 8 5 2 0 -1 3 -2 3 3 -6 -28 LAND (KM) 1587 1601 1618 1642 1669 1765 1807 1844 1881 1894 1871 1829 1785 1579 1339 1133 967 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.6 22.3 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.3 25.1 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.1 128.6 129.2 129.7 131.1 132.4 133.6 134.7 135.4 135.6 135.8 136.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 5 7 11 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -20. -27. -35. -41. -47. -52. -57. -60. -62. -65. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -13. -18. -20. -22. -24. -27. -31. -36. -40. -43. -46. -49. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -16. -19. -22. -26. -27. -27. -27. -27. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -21. -29. -38. -52. -63. -73. -82. -91.-100.-111.-120.-127.-136.-145.-150. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.4 127.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 775.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##