* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 106 100 90 74 61 48 38 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 112 106 100 90 74 61 48 38 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 110 103 94 86 71 59 48 39 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 14 21 19 29 30 35 34 42 41 45 42 34 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 2 2 3 2 6 2 3 4 1 -3 -2 4 6 12 SHEAR DIR 242 255 251 246 248 259 251 263 255 245 246 244 242 239 226 287 299 SST (C) 27.5 26.8 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.1 25.3 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.2 24.3 24.1 23.8 23.8 23.0 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 130 124 123 121 112 115 105 105 107 102 103 103 102 103 96 78 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.3 -54.5 -53.5 -51.9 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.7 3.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 52 48 47 42 38 38 37 33 30 29 36 41 45 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 36 34 33 31 29 27 22 19 16 13 10 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 87 78 75 71 61 64 50 35 30 11 0 -16 -25 -16 56 68 128 200 MB DIV 65 48 34 42 23 18 11 -8 -11 7 4 -6 2 25 59 47 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 5 9 6 2 5 3 1 1 2 3 -20 -44 -40 LAND (KM) 1606 1603 1604 1619 1636 1677 1757 1869 1913 1937 1973 1962 1880 1743 1486 1169 780 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.3 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.6 127.1 127.7 128.2 129.2 130.5 132.0 133.1 134.1 135.2 135.8 135.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 8 13 18 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -30. -40. -49. -56. -63. -67. -70. -72. -75. -79. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. -20. -25. -31. -34. -32. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -18. -22. -25. -26. -27. -26. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -15. -25. -41. -54. -67. -77. -88. -99.-110.-118.-126.-132.-133.-135. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.6 126.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 774.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##